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Strengthening the base: preparing health research for climate change
Woodward, Alistair Peterson Stearns, Beverly Ghaffar, Abdul Shahab, Saqib
Woodward, Alistair
Peterson Stearns, Beverly
Ghaffar, Abdul
Shahab, Saqib
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s14889e.pdf
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"There are several estimates of the direct and indirect effects of climate change. While the direct effects have been estimated with some confidence, the indirect effects are less evident. Most estimates come from research in high-income countries and have to be extrapolated to poorer regions and countries with varying climates, demography and economic conditions. There are areas of knowledge that are more transferable than others, such as physiological responses to heat. Other information is strongly dependent on the setting and will require local research, for example, the “dose” of heat received by city dwellers, which is highly behaviour-dependent. While mortality is quoted most reliably, morbidity and impacts on quality of life and social cohesion are harder to quantify. Research is essential to identify some of the emerging health and societal effects and to develop indicators that reflect their relationships. As the climate continues to change, so must our knowledge and preparations change. Research in low- and middle-income countries must be updated just as research in richer countries is. When the 2008 UK report on health effects of climate change includes plans for containing malaria in the UK and forecasts increased skin cancer caused by exposure to sun, it is clear that contingencies in poorer countries should also be adjusted. Direct effects are better understood through observation and modeling while indirect effects are dependant on other key variables. For example, if water and sanitation improve, deaths due to diarrhoea will decrease. If water and sanitation levels stay the same or worsen, deaths due to diarrhoea will increase significantly. Similarly, global food production capacity currently appears to be maintainable over the medium term – 50 to 80 years. However, there will be marked regional variations in food production with poorer, more densely populated regions facing significant shortages as droughts and floods affect crops. Global flow of food through open trade and aid may be able to address this regional imbalance. Business as usual or diversion of agricultural land to non-food production uses will significantly increase global malnutrition, especially in the poorest and most vulnerable populations."(pg 11-12)
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2008
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9782940401154
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With permission of the license/copyright holder